According to the Social Weather Stations, most people surveyed in 18 countries believe that globalization is mostly good for most people. This is quite an eye-opener - all along I thought most people were, at the very least, wary of globalization.
The highest "approval ratings", as it were, for globalization are found - unshockingly - in China and South Korea. Export-dependent countries both. (Goes to show you the legendary antiglobalist Korean hotheads demonstrating in every possible ocassion, are not quite representative of their countrymen.)
Interestingly, the lowest approval rating is in the Philippines. Perhaps it's the level of education - after all, it's the Philippines and India who are least approving of globalization.
However the result for the Philippines, despite low educational level of the population, should still be surprising. After all, 1 in 5 Filipino workers is employed overseas. Does the export of labor turn the remaining citizenry off of globalization, unlike the export of goods? I conjecture, "yes." The export of labor is attended with great ambivalence, from which the export of goods is spared. The latter separates the worker from the labor (which is then embodied in the product) - the product then undergoes the slings and arrows of xenophobia, while the worker takes off at five o'clock and goes - home.
Of course I'd be the last to oppose free market choices to migrate. But I'd be the first to admit - yes, my ambivalence.
Bayan ko, nahan ka
Ako ngayo'y nag-iiisa
Nais kong magbalik
Sa iyo, bayan ko
Patawarin mo ako
Kung ako'y nagkamali
Sa landas na aking
Tinahak
(My country, where are you?
I am now alone.
I wish to return to you, my country.
Forgive me,
If I have erred
In the way
I have taken. )
Saturday, May 26, 2007
Friday, May 25, 2007
Game theorists speak
Pointing you to a new book about Game Theory. Unlike other references, which present specific game theory models, this is really about the theory, its key areas, progress, empirical application, and future prospects. It is based on interviews with top scholars in the field. I have only the online excerpts to go on, but it is already mostly fascinating. The most interesting of these are of Ken Binmore, Tom Schelling, and Bob Sugden, which are all about the real world applications of game theory. Let's hear from Nobel Laureate Sugden:
Conventional game theory presupposes that each player’s motivations can be represented by numerical payoffs, assigned to the outcomes of strategy profiles, and that the combined behaviour of the players of a game can be explained by using solution concepts that use these payoffs as data. But what entitles game theory to claim that this strategy of explanation will work? It is not a self-evident truth that players are motivated by individual payoffs, or that standard solution principles, such as dominance, hold when defined relative to such payoffs.16 To know if this strategy works, we need to be shown that there is a method of assigning payoffs to real-world games such that, when it is used, the solution concepts of game theory lead to successful predictions. If this strategy doesn’t work, game theory is at fault and needs to be changed. If progress is to be possible, the first essential is that game theorists recognise that it is their job to make their theories fit the world. That is what science is all about.
Friday, May 11, 2007
The good, the bad, and the ugly
The Philippines is holding its local and legilative elections this May 14. Which of the senatorial candidates exhibit the most libertarian leanings? Let's consider their answers to a question on the importation of low cost medicines (Philippine Daily Inquirer, May 6, 2007). I've divided their answers into three categories.
The categories cut randomly across partly lines. Unlike the recent runoffs in France, where the drama was resolved in favor of the more libertarian party, there is practically no ideological distinction between the contending elements in Philippine politics. Both favor good governance and unity; each claims itself as authentic. Product differentiation descends to the level of personalities, rather than philosophies. Perhaps, in the Philippine context, this is a good thing - when products are unstandardized, there is hardly a point to reading the label.
Of the three categories, of course I favor the first; in that category I have awarded the Man-With-No-Name award for the first two. Most of the other answers are blah-blah-blah-blah, blah-blah, blah-blah-blah-blah-blah-blah-blah, blah-blah-blah, blah.
In the final category are answers I have included for your enjoyment.
***************************************************************
PRO:
Vicente Magsaysay, administration: I am for importation of low-cost medicines.
Antonio Trillanes, opposition: I support the importation of low-priced medicines.
Benigno Aquino, opposition: Im in favor of legislative initiatives seeking to amend the Intellectual Property Code to allow parallel importation of medicines as the first step toward broader access to quality health care.
Manuel Villar, administration: Under my watch as Senate President, the Senate approved the bill lowering the prices of medicines by amending our Patents Law to allow the importation and early development of patented medicines to greatly alleviate the health care needs of our people.
PRO BUT PROLIX:
Edgardo Angara, administration: Caring for ones health is a personal responsibility for most people but for me, it is my public duty. I have helped institutionalize a National Health Insurance Program thru PhilHealth, pushed for the creation of the National Institutes of Health to promote health R & D, and rallied behind the Generics Act. Ill push for the increase in the elderlys discount privileges for medicine to 34 percent by proposing amendments to the Senior Citizens Act. Ill support measures that will make available health support to an even bigger public even if it means importing quality low-priced medicines.Alan Cayetano, opposition: The Arroyo administration has neglected the health needs of the people. The cost of medicine is now beyond the reach of most Filipinos. I support the bills in Congress that call for importation of cheap drugs and for the institution of price control on certain drugs. Government purchases of drugs are also mired in corruption. This can be addressed by allowing patients to purchase medicine directly from private drugstores by issuing vouchers instead of the usual bidding that is practiced today.
Panfilo Lacson, opposition: Health is a priority in my advocacy as I have delineated in my HOPE legislative agenda. I, therefore, squarely support the policy allowing importation of low-priced medicines to enable Filipinos to have easier and fuller access to more medicines. Government, however, must ensure that unscrupulous parties that import low-priced but fake or substandard medicine are quickly punished.Luis Singson, administration: I am totally in favor of the parallel importation of low-priced medicines as it redounds to the benefit of the great majority of our countrymen. However, I also believe that we must resolutely pursue a comprehensive health program that includes allocation of substantial research and development funds for alternative herbal-based medicines or drugs made from indigenous materials that abound in the Philippines. We must develop our local pharmaceutical industry to lessen our dependence on imported medicines.
Juan Zubiri, administration: The high cost of medicine affects the poor more than the rich. Thus, it is only right and in the interest of the Filipinos for the government to find ways to lower medicine prices. This could be done by buying low-priced medicines abroad, fostering the local generic medicine industry, eliminating the monopoly of big medicine manufacturers, and placing prices of essential and life-saving medicine under government control. Not only manufactured medicine can be imported. Technologies in the manufacture of medicines with expired patents can also be adopted in the country by drug companies, so we can make cheaper medicines.
Francisco Pangilinan, independent: Because its economically beneficial for the country and people, importing low-priced medicines is a boon. If it poses a challenge to the local pharmaceutical industry, it should be taken as a chance for the industry to be more competitive. The benefit of having cheap but quality medicines for our people should prevail. These are thereasons the Senate passed the patents bill on the third reading before we ended session in February. The House of Representatives should give immediate attention to this bill when we resume session in July.
EVASIVE
Anna Dominique Coseteng, opposition: While I am not against the importation of low-priced medicines, we must ensure that these are of the same high standard of safety and potency as medicines from established drug firms. One way to lower medicine prices is to require manufacturers to put in big enough text, the manufacturers suggested retail price on the package so that consumers will know how much a drug outlet is making, over the manufacturers cost of production.Mike Defensor, administration: One of the priority programs of the government is to bring quality but affordable medicine to the public. Notwithstanding, the implementation of the generics law, we have not been successful in reducing the price of medicines. We are implementing the Botika ng Bayan and the Botika ng Barangay in coordination with theDepartment of Health and the PITC. I agree to the importation of medicine if this will benefit the public.
Francis Escudero, opposition: I am in favor of such a move if indeed it will redound to the benefit of our people. Safety nets would have to be provided, however, in connection with quality control and intellectual property rights.
Loren Legarda, opposition: The manufacture of pharmaceutical products in the Philippines is a virtual monopoly. This makes the price of medicines costly in our country, even if manufactured locally. India produces a lot of medicines comparable to those manufactured here. If importing medicine will bring down the cost of health care in the Philippines, then importation should be undertaken. Unrestricted importation, however, does not sound good. Only medicines which are genuine and which have not yet gone beyond their storage life should be imported.
Tessie Oreta, administration: The cost of medicine in the country is one of the highest in Asia. The high cost becomes a major stumbling block to improving the well-being of Filipinos. Importing low-priced medicines may be one option to address the problem. However, we must ensure that standards of quality are met. In addition, we need to strengthen the capacities of regulatory bodies such as the Bureau of Customs and Bureau of Food and Drugs in order to prevent the entry of fake and substandard medicines.
Prospero Pichay, administration: There should be a balance between the importation of low-priced medicines and the need to let the local drug industry continue to be viable. We need to import low-priced medicines to help our countrymen cope with the high drug prices but we dont also want to kill the local drug industry. So there should be a balance.
Vicento Sotto, administration: Importing low-priced medicines is a major step in addressing the problem of access to affordable and quality medicines. However, we must ensure that standards of quality are always met and are constantly kept updated. In the case of low-cost imported medicines, quality must be a priority. We also need to explore and develop more alternative and traditional medicines, which may be more affordable to the majority of our people. In addition, we need to strengthen the capability of regulatory bodies such as the Bureau of Food and Drugs in order to prevent the entry of fake and below-standard medicines.
HUH?
Sonia Roco, opposition: Are the multinationals providing reasonably priced medicines? Is the distribution of imported medicines democratized? Is the use of herbal and traditional medicine and methods sufficiently promoted and supported by the government? The 54-percent self-rated poor badly need cheap, unexpired medicines. Can they be bought at the Botika ng Bayan?
Ralph Recto, administration: Like the medicines we take, importation should be of the right dosage and kind. The challenge is not to import from India, but to copy India, which has been able to provide cheap medicines to its people by manufacturing essential drugs, to the extent of skirting patent limitations.
Cesar Montano, administration: Thats a good idea. But another option is to support locally made drugslike herbal medicines. In doing so, we are also providing jobs to our countrymen.
Richard Gomez, independent: All Filipinos should be given access to cheap medicines. Poverty is a major problem in our country. Thats why my priority is to raise the salaries of Filipinos.
Jamalul Kiram, administration: Expand the program and increase the budget allocation consistent with WHO standards and health services budget.
John Osmena, opposition: I am in favor of low-priced drugs.
Joker Arroyo, administration: No answer.
The categories cut randomly across partly lines. Unlike the recent runoffs in France, where the drama was resolved in favor of the more libertarian party, there is practically no ideological distinction between the contending elements in Philippine politics. Both favor good governance and unity; each claims itself as authentic. Product differentiation descends to the level of personalities, rather than philosophies. Perhaps, in the Philippine context, this is a good thing - when products are unstandardized, there is hardly a point to reading the label.
Of the three categories, of course I favor the first; in that category I have awarded the Man-With-No-Name award for the first two. Most of the other answers are blah-blah-blah-blah, blah-blah, blah-blah-blah-blah-blah-blah-blah, blah-blah-blah, blah.
In the final category are answers I have included for your enjoyment.
***************************************************************
PRO:
Vicente Magsaysay, administration: I am for importation of low-cost medicines.
Antonio Trillanes, opposition: I support the importation of low-priced medicines.
Benigno Aquino, opposition: Im in favor of legislative initiatives seeking to amend the Intellectual Property Code to allow parallel importation of medicines as the first step toward broader access to quality health care.
Manuel Villar, administration: Under my watch as Senate President, the Senate approved the bill lowering the prices of medicines by amending our Patents Law to allow the importation and early development of patented medicines to greatly alleviate the health care needs of our people.
PRO BUT PROLIX:
Edgardo Angara, administration: Caring for ones health is a personal responsibility for most people but for me, it is my public duty. I have helped institutionalize a National Health Insurance Program thru PhilHealth, pushed for the creation of the National Institutes of Health to promote health R & D, and rallied behind the Generics Act. Ill push for the increase in the elderlys discount privileges for medicine to 34 percent by proposing amendments to the Senior Citizens Act. Ill support measures that will make available health support to an even bigger public even if it means importing quality low-priced medicines.Alan Cayetano, opposition: The Arroyo administration has neglected the health needs of the people. The cost of medicine is now beyond the reach of most Filipinos. I support the bills in Congress that call for importation of cheap drugs and for the institution of price control on certain drugs. Government purchases of drugs are also mired in corruption. This can be addressed by allowing patients to purchase medicine directly from private drugstores by issuing vouchers instead of the usual bidding that is practiced today.
Panfilo Lacson, opposition: Health is a priority in my advocacy as I have delineated in my HOPE legislative agenda. I, therefore, squarely support the policy allowing importation of low-priced medicines to enable Filipinos to have easier and fuller access to more medicines. Government, however, must ensure that unscrupulous parties that import low-priced but fake or substandard medicine are quickly punished.Luis Singson, administration: I am totally in favor of the parallel importation of low-priced medicines as it redounds to the benefit of the great majority of our countrymen. However, I also believe that we must resolutely pursue a comprehensive health program that includes allocation of substantial research and development funds for alternative herbal-based medicines or drugs made from indigenous materials that abound in the Philippines. We must develop our local pharmaceutical industry to lessen our dependence on imported medicines.
Juan Zubiri, administration: The high cost of medicine affects the poor more than the rich. Thus, it is only right and in the interest of the Filipinos for the government to find ways to lower medicine prices. This could be done by buying low-priced medicines abroad, fostering the local generic medicine industry, eliminating the monopoly of big medicine manufacturers, and placing prices of essential and life-saving medicine under government control. Not only manufactured medicine can be imported. Technologies in the manufacture of medicines with expired patents can also be adopted in the country by drug companies, so we can make cheaper medicines.
Francisco Pangilinan, independent: Because its economically beneficial for the country and people, importing low-priced medicines is a boon. If it poses a challenge to the local pharmaceutical industry, it should be taken as a chance for the industry to be more competitive. The benefit of having cheap but quality medicines for our people should prevail. These are thereasons the Senate passed the patents bill on the third reading before we ended session in February. The House of Representatives should give immediate attention to this bill when we resume session in July.
EVASIVE
Anna Dominique Coseteng, opposition: While I am not against the importation of low-priced medicines, we must ensure that these are of the same high standard of safety and potency as medicines from established drug firms. One way to lower medicine prices is to require manufacturers to put in big enough text, the manufacturers suggested retail price on the package so that consumers will know how much a drug outlet is making, over the manufacturers cost of production.Mike Defensor, administration: One of the priority programs of the government is to bring quality but affordable medicine to the public. Notwithstanding, the implementation of the generics law, we have not been successful in reducing the price of medicines. We are implementing the Botika ng Bayan and the Botika ng Barangay in coordination with theDepartment of Health and the PITC. I agree to the importation of medicine if this will benefit the public.
Francis Escudero, opposition: I am in favor of such a move if indeed it will redound to the benefit of our people. Safety nets would have to be provided, however, in connection with quality control and intellectual property rights.
Loren Legarda, opposition: The manufacture of pharmaceutical products in the Philippines is a virtual monopoly. This makes the price of medicines costly in our country, even if manufactured locally. India produces a lot of medicines comparable to those manufactured here. If importing medicine will bring down the cost of health care in the Philippines, then importation should be undertaken. Unrestricted importation, however, does not sound good. Only medicines which are genuine and which have not yet gone beyond their storage life should be imported.
Tessie Oreta, administration: The cost of medicine in the country is one of the highest in Asia. The high cost becomes a major stumbling block to improving the well-being of Filipinos. Importing low-priced medicines may be one option to address the problem. However, we must ensure that standards of quality are met. In addition, we need to strengthen the capacities of regulatory bodies such as the Bureau of Customs and Bureau of Food and Drugs in order to prevent the entry of fake and substandard medicines.
Prospero Pichay, administration: There should be a balance between the importation of low-priced medicines and the need to let the local drug industry continue to be viable. We need to import low-priced medicines to help our countrymen cope with the high drug prices but we dont also want to kill the local drug industry. So there should be a balance.
Vicento Sotto, administration: Importing low-priced medicines is a major step in addressing the problem of access to affordable and quality medicines. However, we must ensure that standards of quality are always met and are constantly kept updated. In the case of low-cost imported medicines, quality must be a priority. We also need to explore and develop more alternative and traditional medicines, which may be more affordable to the majority of our people. In addition, we need to strengthen the capability of regulatory bodies such as the Bureau of Food and Drugs in order to prevent the entry of fake and below-standard medicines.
HUH?
Sonia Roco, opposition: Are the multinationals providing reasonably priced medicines? Is the distribution of imported medicines democratized? Is the use of herbal and traditional medicine and methods sufficiently promoted and supported by the government? The 54-percent self-rated poor badly need cheap, unexpired medicines. Can they be bought at the Botika ng Bayan?
Ralph Recto, administration: Like the medicines we take, importation should be of the right dosage and kind. The challenge is not to import from India, but to copy India, which has been able to provide cheap medicines to its people by manufacturing essential drugs, to the extent of skirting patent limitations.
Cesar Montano, administration: Thats a good idea. But another option is to support locally made drugslike herbal medicines. In doing so, we are also providing jobs to our countrymen.
Richard Gomez, independent: All Filipinos should be given access to cheap medicines. Poverty is a major problem in our country. Thats why my priority is to raise the salaries of Filipinos.
Jamalul Kiram, administration: Expand the program and increase the budget allocation consistent with WHO standards and health services budget.
John Osmena, opposition: I am in favor of low-priced drugs.
Joker Arroyo, administration: No answer.
Wednesday, May 02, 2007
Trivial economics of time allocation as applied to blogging
Why do I blog? Blogging is a matter of self-expression, mostly, along with the hope that some reader may be entertained or informed (in that order of difficulty). This is consistent with a model in which the number of posts in my blog appears as an argument in my utility function, alongside consumption of rice, housing services, transport services....
As Becker argued, utility is actually a production process involving commodities purchased in the market, as well as time. Time however is also a factor in producing the income to purchase the market goods. So the choice of time allocation and choice of goods is a compromise between competing ways of generating utility. For example, in deciding to buy a DVD, the biggest factor is time (for the dollar-per-disk variety, cost is rather trivial.)
And similarly for posting in the weblog. It is relatively easy to trace a life history of my schedule over the past couple of years. In general during months where the frequency of posting would be higher, the value of my time for income-generation was rather low (deadlines farther away).
Now is as fairly convoluted an explanation as you can get for a posting hiatus.
As Becker argued, utility is actually a production process involving commodities purchased in the market, as well as time. Time however is also a factor in producing the income to purchase the market goods. So the choice of time allocation and choice of goods is a compromise between competing ways of generating utility. For example, in deciding to buy a DVD, the biggest factor is time (for the dollar-per-disk variety, cost is rather trivial.)
And similarly for posting in the weblog. It is relatively easy to trace a life history of my schedule over the past couple of years. In general during months where the frequency of posting would be higher, the value of my time for income-generation was rather low (deadlines farther away).
Now is as fairly convoluted an explanation as you can get for a posting hiatus.
The new institutional economics (2)
As discussed earlier, early development economics tended to ascribe irrational and inefficient behaviors to the traditional agrarian economy as a reason for its underdevelopment. But analysis by economicsts such as Ted Schultz and Steve Chung began a quest for elaborating the hidden rationality underlying traditional agrarian structures and behavior. For example, the new theory of share tenancy notes that when insurance markets are imperfect or missing altogether, the tenancy contract acts as a partial insurance device. Under sharecropping, any loss is shared by both owner and tenant.
In general, according to Otsuka and associates, there is no evidence that share tenancy keeps employment of labor or other resources less productive than warranted. Agrarian contracts are found to adapt to real world enforcement problems; hence, share tenancy is more frequently observed in cases where monitoring is less costly, i.e. in closely-knit communities and families.
The need to provide work incentives and closely monitor labor to prevent shirking reveals an important advantage of the family farm as a production unit. Because of this, it is now commonly argued that economies of scale in agriculture are largely non-existent. However we do observe considerable land consolidation; such patterns may be due to market failure. Under imperfect credit markets, tenants face constraints in raising working capital from commercial sources. Banks may be more willing to lend to affluent landowners – who have collateral and a credit history – rather than to cultivators with no assets and no credit history in the formal sector. From a dynamic viewpoint, land serves as a store of wealth to smooth expenditures during income or consumption shocks. Because of these failures, the price of land remains artificially high . Furthermore land transfers are frequently motivated by “distress sales” rather than reallocation of land to more productive uses, leading to cumulative asset inequality.
To some extent, land rental markets offer an important means for improving asset inequality, as landless workers are able to climb the “agricultural ladder” of share tenancy, leasehold, and ultimately ownership.
From this perspective, land reform may have both positive and negative impacts. Conferment of ownership to cultivators may accelerate capital accumulation among the poor towards a more egalitarian and efficient distribution of assets. However redistributive land reform may incur high administrative cost; moreover, incentives to invest may be crippled during the interim period during ownership rights is yet to be transferred. Finally, controls on the rental market, including proscription of share tenancy, may deprive cultivators an important means to for sharing risk as well as foreclosing opportunities to the landless to climb the “agricultural ladder”.
In general, according to Otsuka and associates, there is no evidence that share tenancy keeps employment of labor or other resources less productive than warranted. Agrarian contracts are found to adapt to real world enforcement problems; hence, share tenancy is more frequently observed in cases where monitoring is less costly, i.e. in closely-knit communities and families.
The need to provide work incentives and closely monitor labor to prevent shirking reveals an important advantage of the family farm as a production unit. Because of this, it is now commonly argued that economies of scale in agriculture are largely non-existent. However we do observe considerable land consolidation; such patterns may be due to market failure. Under imperfect credit markets, tenants face constraints in raising working capital from commercial sources. Banks may be more willing to lend to affluent landowners – who have collateral and a credit history – rather than to cultivators with no assets and no credit history in the formal sector. From a dynamic viewpoint, land serves as a store of wealth to smooth expenditures during income or consumption shocks. Because of these failures, the price of land remains artificially high . Furthermore land transfers are frequently motivated by “distress sales” rather than reallocation of land to more productive uses, leading to cumulative asset inequality.
To some extent, land rental markets offer an important means for improving asset inequality, as landless workers are able to climb the “agricultural ladder” of share tenancy, leasehold, and ultimately ownership.
From this perspective, land reform may have both positive and negative impacts. Conferment of ownership to cultivators may accelerate capital accumulation among the poor towards a more egalitarian and efficient distribution of assets. However redistributive land reform may incur high administrative cost; moreover, incentives to invest may be crippled during the interim period during ownership rights is yet to be transferred. Finally, controls on the rental market, including proscription of share tenancy, may deprive cultivators an important means to for sharing risk as well as foreclosing opportunities to the landless to climb the “agricultural ladder”.
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