Last year I had this post: What the Eagle Saw. The Ateneo Macroeconomic Forecasting Model (AMFM) generated a forecast of 5.3% growth for the Philippines in 2005. This set the upper bound for the forecasting range; the lower bound (4.5%) was from an alternative model, plus adjustment for a pessimistic scenario due to political uncertainty.
Well the model was more or less on track: actual growth was 5.1%. The economy bucked political concerns to outperform most other forecasts (i.e. the competition!)
As the modeler I can't deny the ego boost. To be fair though, one needs to examine AMFM forecasting performance over several periods. One hit does not a reliable model make. On a consultancy basis I'm working on the AMFM to improve its forecasting performance.
Getting to the point: Ateneo will be holding another Eagle Watch economic briefing this coming Wednesday, February 8. Forecasts for this year will be unveiled. Hopefully we can repeat our forecasting performance for 2006.
Off for another trip, this time to Samar in central Philippines (Visayas). No, not related at all to macroeconomic forecasting! Next post at the end of the week.