tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14858768.post113374765414411311..comments2023-02-15T20:06:13.584+08:00Comments on Rational Choice: Extraordinary claims require extraordinary scrutinyRoehlanohttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04018109135738021378noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14858768.post-1133849100496618012005-12-06T14:05:00.000+08:002005-12-06T14:05:00.000+08:00Thanks Steve for the links. Fascinating exchange. ...Thanks Steve for the links. Fascinating exchange. Have quite a lot to catch up on.Roehlanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04018109135738021378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14858768.post-1133823311412227872005-12-06T06:55:00.000+08:002005-12-06T06:55:00.000+08:00"Extraordinary claims require extraordinary scruti..."Extraordinary claims require extraordinary scrutiny" -- excellent quote.<BR/><BR/>Another lesson is to test your complicated econometric analysis against simple reality checks. That's what I did back in 1999 when I debated Levitt on his abortion-cut-crime claim in Slate.com:<BR/><BR/>http://www.slate.com/id/33569/entry/33571/<BR/><BR/>I found that reality checks suggested that Levitt's claim was unlikely to be right at any significant scale. Levitt responded that his black box analysis proved he was right. For six years, the conventional wisdom held that Levitt was right, because, well Occam's Butterknife says the guy with the most convoluted, hard-to-check evidence must be right.<BR/><BR/>But, now we know better.<BR/><BR/>You can read more about this Freakonomics Fiasco at <BR/><BR/>http://isteve.com/Freakonomics_Fiasco.htmSteve Sailerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11920109042402850214noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14858768.post-1133793557369936862005-12-05T22:39:00.000+08:002005-12-05T22:39:00.000+08:00I have read hundreds of journal articles. I confes...I have read hundreds of journal articles. I confess - not once have I bothered to look at the original data set, where available. <BR/><BR/>There are only two kinds of researchers who will examine those data sets: <BR/><BR/>a. those who will use the data/method for their own research<BR/><BR/>b. those who aim to publish a comment/note criticizing or confirming the research. In case of the latter, by replicating the result elsewhere; this overlaps with a.Roehlanohttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04018109135738021378noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-14858768.post-1133752808871883832005-12-05T11:20:00.000+08:002005-12-05T11:20:00.000+08:00with more and more journals posting the original d...with more and more journals posting the original datasets used for published articles, the cost of replication is also going down.<BR/><BR/>FAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com